Forex Weekly Watch: May 11 – 15, 2015

EUR/JPY

EUR/JPY 1 Hour Forex Chart

EUR/JPY 1 Hour Forex Chart

After a strong rally over the last few weeks, it looks like the supply of buyers and sellers have finally balanced out last week in EUR/JPY. The short-term trend is obviously in favor of the bulls, so it only makes sense to look for long plays; either through a breakout of the PWH or a pullback.  I’m looking for a pullback to the bottom WATR level, which happens to line up with the minor psychological level of 132.50 and sits below the PWL.  All together, 133.00 could draw in buyers if we don’t see any fresh surprises from the fundies.  But if we do get fresh news, then that PWL could be a fragile level that when broken could draw in momentum sellers.

  • WO: 134.06
  • Top WATR: 135.65
  • Bottom WATR: 132.47
  • PWH: 136.00
  • PWL: 133.11

GBP/JPY

GBP/JPY 1 Hour Forex Chart

GBP/JPY 1 Hour Forex Chart

Guppy’s picture looks very similar to EUR/JPY, but with that huge spike higher after the U.K. Parliamentary elections. I suspect this is a trend that will most likely continue and there’s a solid technical area to watch if there is a pullback.  The bottom WATR area is lining up with the rising moving averages, so that could draw in the buyers who like to play average volatility ranges and MA’s as dynamic support an resistance.  Of course, a pullback could go as low as the PWL, so I may be cautious with my buy orders until I do see a retest of that area.

  • WO: 184.90
  • Top WATR: 186.66
  • Bottom WATR: 183.14
  • PWH: 186.05
  • PWL: 180.96

EUR/GBP

EUR/GBP 1 Hour Forex Chart

EUR/GBP 1 Hour Forex Chart

Compared to April, volatility picked up big time in the first two weeks of May. Hopefully it will continue because that’s what makes trading awesome, and if it does I think the recent reversal back to the downside is the likely direction now that some level of uncertainty has been removed from the pound after the U.K. elections. For me, the area between the week open and top WATR is a logical area to draw in sellers, but a break of the PWL is also attractive, albeit a cautious short for me with possible support not too far away at the bottom WATR and April lows around .7135

  • WO: .7249
  • Top WATR: .7325
  • Bottom WATR: .7174
  • PWH: .7483
  • PWL: .7226

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