Forex Weekly Watch: Apr. 13 – 17, 2015

EUR/JPY

EUR/JPY 1 Hour Forex Chart

EUR/JPY 1 Hour Forex Chart

The downward pressure I mentioned last week definitely took hold of EUR/JPY after the pair’s minor move higher drew in sellers at the previous resistance area around 131.30. It was nearly a one way move down on both broad euro weakness and yen strength that kicked in late in the week on BOJ comments.

It makes sense to remain bearish and with a strong one way move, it’s probably a good idea to wait for a pullback incase we see profit takers earlier on the week. I’m eyeing the top WATR area (129.00) to the major psychological handle as a potential resistance area to watch.

  • WO: 127.40
  • Top WATR: 128.96
  • Bottom WATR: 125.84
  • PWH: 131.30
  • PWL: 127.21

GBP/JPY

GBP/JPY 1 Hour Forex Chart

GBP/JPY 1 Hour Forex Chart

Volatility in Guppy returned to its normal levels last week after a pretty sluggish transition from Q1 to Q2 at the end of March.  And the likelihood of a downside breakout that I mentioned last week was definitely the play as the pair found strong resistance around the mid-March resistance area around 180.00.

For this week, the downward pressure is still on with the area between this week’s open and top WATR as fair game for sellers to jump in short on any bounces. A break of the PWL will likely lead to a test of the major psych level of 175.00 and possibly even 174.00.

  • WO: 175.85
  • Top WATR: 177.51
  • Bottom WATR: 174.19
  • PWH: 179.29
  • PWL: 175.68

EUR/GBP

EUR/GBP 1 Hour Forex Chart

EUR/GBP 1 Hour Forex Chart

The downtrend in EUR/GBP shows just how weak the euro was given the pound was having it’s own issues with staying afloat against the major currencies.

Given the sideways, but volatile, action we’ve seen over the past three weeks, I think the thing to watch is for a breakout of the PWL which seems to be a strong area of interest through out March.  If there is a followthrough breakout, the bottom WATR level is likely the first potential support area, not only because of EUR/GBP’s average volatility, but because it was a minor support area in mid-March. And of course, if there is a pullback to the moving averages at top WATR, I don’t think I’d hesitate to start nibbling on short positions there.

  • WO: .7244
  • Top WATR: .7312
  • Bottom WATR: .7177
  • PWH: .7380
  • PWL: .7223

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