Forex Weekly Watch: Apr. 6 – 10, 2015

EUR/JPY

EUR/JPY 1 Hour Forex Chart

EUR/JPY 1 Hour Forex Chart

It was another rangebound week for EUR/JPY but price action is likely to pick up thanks to an active forex calendar this week, most notably the Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting on Wednesday.

Unless the BOJ shocks the world with an unexpected monetary policy change, I think the probability is low of a major breakout and that the recent range the pair has been in since mid-March (127.00 – 131.00) is likely to hold. For me, I’m still long-term bearish on the euro and that sellers could be watching 131.00 to 132.00 to potentially play the top of the range. But I’ve also gotta watch out for the 129.00 level as potential support as buyers held it like champ in March.

  • WO: 130.77
  • Top WATR: 132.30
  • Bottom WATR: 129.25
  • PWH: 130.98
  • PWL: 128.42

GBP/JPY

GBP/JPY 1 Hour Forex Chart

GBP/JPY 1 Hour Forex Chart

The market on Guppy tightened up even more last week, and it showed how strong buyers are at 177.00.  Unlike EUR/JPY above, I think the probability is better-than-average of a breakout, because not only do we have the BOJ to watch out for in GBP/JPY as  potential catalyst, but also the Bank of England’s monetary policy statement on Thursday.

Given the downward pressure over the last few weeks, a downside breakout is the more likely break of either direction and if it does break, 175.00 to 176.00 is likely to be the next area of support (bottom of the weekly ATR and major psychological area).

  • WO: 177.41
  • Top WATR: 179.07
  • Bottom WATR: 175.76
  • PWH: 178.44
  • PWL: 175.76

EUR/GBP

EUR/GBP 1 Hour Forex Chart

EUR/GBP 1 Hour Forex Chart

Last week, I asked if this was a new trend to the upside we’re seeing in EUR/GBP, and while it’s still too early to tell, buyers certainly held the line around .7250 last week to keep it supported.

So, it’s starting to look like consolidation behavior at the moment with buyers likely ready and willing to still jump in between .7250 – .7300 (bottom WATR area). And the area between the week open and top WATR could be a draw to longer-term players since it is the 61% Fibonacci retracement area for the last swing move lower from .7592 to .7015.

  • WO: .7366
  • Top WATR: .7433
  • Bottom WATR: .7299
  • PWH: .7380
  • PWL: .7223

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