Forex Weekly Watch: Mar. 30 – Apr. 3, 2015

EUR/JPY

EUR/JPY 1 Hour Forex Chart

EUR/JPY 1 Hour Forex Chart

Without any major news stories from the currency markets last week, EUR/JPY volatility tightened up to trade within its normal weekly range.  I think we could see the same thing this week, typical tight behavior at the beginning of every month, but this tight behavior could also be a setup for a breakout with the right catalyst (e.g., Greece bailout talks fail, geopolitical issues in Yemen and Ukraine, etc.).

For now, I’m watching the 131.50 area (PWH and top WATR) as a potential sell area because of how strongly it held as resistance last week, but the 127.50 – 128.00 area also is one to watch for counter-trend traders as it is the lows of March.

  • WO: 129.87
  • Top WATR: 131.45
  • Bottom WATR: 128.32
  • PWH: 131.54
  • PWL: 129.03

GBP/JPY

GBP/JPY 1 Hour Forex Chart

GBP/JPY 1 Hour Forex Chart

It’s been nothing but downside pressure coming for Guppy in the last few weeks on a combination of bearish U.K sentiment and overall broad risk-off sentiment in the financial markets. I’m not one to fight the trend, so the only play I see at the moment is potential resistance around the top WATR and PWH area, which also held as resistance very strongly two weeks ago. But I do expect volatility to pick up a bit in Guppy with some top tier events coming out from the U.K., so I’ll watch those levels very closely because a breakout to the upside could draw in plenty of buy orders from both profit takers and momentum players.

  • WO: 177.52
  • Top WATR: 179.28
  • Bottom WATR: 175.76
  • PWH: 179.69
  • PWL: 176.49

EUR/GBP

EUR/GBP 1 Hour Forex Chart

EUR/GBP 1 Hour Forex Chart

Is this a new trend to the upside that we see in EUR/GBP? For now, I’ll have to take it as it is, but the bottom WATR and PWL low is definitely the area to watch because on the higher timeframes, EUR/GBP is still in major downtrend. If those levels break, it could be a quick downside move, especially with lots of data coming up for both countries on the forex calendar. On the upside, I don’t think we’ll see sell orders until the .7500 major psychological handle, so short-term bulls may have a few more pips to go before considering some profit taking.

  • WO: .7317
  • Top WATR: .7389
  • Bottom WATR: .7245
  • PWH: .7385
  • PWL: .7228

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