Forex Weekly Watch: Feb. 9 – 13, 2015

EUR/JPY

EUR/JPY 1 Hour Forex Chart

EUR/JPY 1 Hour Forex Chart

In last week’s “Weekly Watch,” I said that consolidation-breakout setups may be the way to go, but it looks like there was no upside breakout to be had as the 135.00 area held as resistance and 133.00 was the floor after the early rally in the week.

That 135.00 area all the way up to 136.00 is still the area to watch as potential resistance, and if it breaks 136.00 or falls back to 135.00 and holds once again as support, it may be time for me to switch to a long bias. Also, if we see positive developments from Greece and EU bailout negotiations, that could be a catalyst for an upside move.  But if that goes south, a break of the previous week low should bring in momentum traders to pull the market lower.

  • WO: 134.43
  • Top WATR: 135.97
  • Bottom WATR: 132.89
  • PWH: 135.36
  • PWL: 132.21

GBP/JPY

GBP/JPY 1 Hour Forex Chart

GBP/JPY 1 Hour Forex Chart

Guppy had a very nice run to the upside last week, around 600 pips from the intraweek low around the 175.50 handle.  If broad sentiment remains bullish for the pair, 180.00 to 181.00 should be an easy support area to watch and play if the bulls remain in control. The top WATR level is the area to watch for potential resistance as it also lines up with the 61% Fibonacci retracement area for the swing move lower from 187.00 to 175.50.  For those seeing last week’s rally higher as a pullback into the strong move lower in January, then the current levels all the way up to the top WATR and Fib levels may draw in sellers or profit takers.

Keep in mind that there is a potential game changer on the forex calendar for Sterling this week with the Bank of England inflation report, and technicals can go out the window temporarily during that reaction time.

  • WO: 181.13
  • Top WATR: 182.98
  • Bottom WATR: 179.29
  • PWH: 181.80
  • PWL: 175.51

EUR/GBP

EUR/GBP 1 Hour Forex Chart

EUR/GBP 1 Hour Forex Chart

I mentioned for the last couple of weeks that the .7500 – .7600 was the area to watch for resistance, and it looks like sellers finally jumped in this area and pushed the pair lower for an unusually big move for this particular pair, over 110 pips lower after finding resistance just under the .7600 handle.

The downtrend is still the dominant trend in this pair, and a pullback higher to the major psychological handle (.7500) makes sense as a potential reversal point to the downside as it does line up with the moving averages and the top of its weekly volatility range.  I also have to point out that the pair is retesting previous swing lows around last week’s open, and a break lower of this area could draw in momentum short players who may see nice reward-to-risk potential as the pair continues to test levels not seen since before the 2008 financial crisis.

  • WO: .7422
  • Top WATR: .7490
  • Bottom WATR: .7355
  • PWH: .7592
  • PWL: .7421

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