Forex Weekly Watch: Oct. 13 – 17, 2014

EUR/JPY

EUR/JPY 1 Hour Forex Chart

EUR/JPY 1 Hour Forex Chart

Once again, EUR/JPY continued the downtrend, but not after chopping around in a range before breaking the PWL.  With the August and September lows broken, the pair could be on its way to November 2013 lows around 131.50, but may find temporary support around 135.00.  This week, I’ll be watching the top WATR level and moving averages (also broken support level) on a pull back, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the pair continued its aggressive move lower from here.

  • WO: 135.83
  • Top WATR: 136.74
  • Bottom WATR: 134.93
  • PWH: 137.94
  • PWL: 135.84

GBP/JPY

GBP/JPY 1 Hour Forex Chart

GBP/JPY 1 Hour Forex Chart

Much like EUR/JPY above, Guppy is currently in a downtrend as well as global risk aversion flows are supporting broad strength in the Japanese yen.  Because the price action is so similar, I am going to go with the same framework as EUR/JPY above to possibly  jump in the trend lower: a pullback to WATR/moving averages or shorting a small position from current levels. The next area of potential support is from the bottom WATR level around 171.50 to the major psychological level of 170.00.

  • WO: 172.88
  • Top WATR: 174.25
  • Bottom WATR: 171.52
  • PWH: 175.46
  • PWL: 172.74

EUR/GBP

EUR/GBP 1 Hour Forex Chart

EUR/GBP 1 Hour Forex Chart

In last week’s Weekly Watch, I said “there might not be a clear direction at the moment.” It looks like that was the case, and with a ho-hum calendar ahead (with exception of U.K. unemployment data) I still see sideways action. Last week, I’ve already taken a short position in EUR/GBP, around this week’s top WATR which could be a potential resistance level once again,  barring a big surprise event or data points.  The bottom WATR level and PWL could be a strong support area if retested.

  • WO: .7859
  • Top WATR: .7904
  • Bottom WATR: .7814
  • PWH: .7900
  • PWL: .7828

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