Forex Weekly Watch: Oct. 6 – 10, 2014

EUR/JPY

EUR/JPY 1 Hour Forex Chart

EUR/JPY 1 Hour Forex Chart

EUR/JPY continued its downtrend moves last week, clearly staying below the 100 and 200 moving averages.  It looks like the market is back into a solid downtrend, which gives me two possible short setups to watch for this week: 1) pullback and resistance at the top WATR/MA’s or 2) a break of the PWL. Broad risk aversion has played a big factor in Japanese yen strength lately, so a change in sentiment is something I have to be aware of as well.

  • WO: 137.22
  • Top WATR: 138.11
  • Bottom WATR: 136.33
  • PWH: 139.14
  • PWL: 136.86

GBP/JPY

GBP/JPY 1 Hour Forex Chart

GBP/JPY 1 Hour Forex Chart

The extremely tight range in Guppy finally broke last week, unfortunately in the opposite direction that I was setup for with my GBP/JPY long trade idea.  Now trading around the 175.00 major psychological handle, we could be in for a short-term bounce to the top WATR/Fibonacci retracement area and moving averages, but like EUR/JPY above, I gotta be open to a break of the PWL as a signal to jump in this possible change of direction.

  • WO: 175.05
  • Top WATR: 176.43
  • Bottom WATR: 173.68
  • PWH: 178.18
  • PWL: 174.32

EUR/GBP

EUR/GBP 1 Hour Forex Chart

EUR/GBP 1 Hour Forex Chart

EUR/GBP is already pulling higher from its longer-term downtrend, but with the pair trading above the moving averages, I think I’ve got to be a little more cautious with this pair in that there might not be a clear direction at the moment.  With a major event coming up on the forex calendar for the Bank of England, I think ranging conditions are likely until then.  For now, I’m still bearish on the pair, watching closely for resistance between top WATR and the major psychological level of .7900

  • WO: .7839
  • Top WATR: .7885
  • Bottom WATR: .7793
  • PWH: .7861
  • PWL: .7766

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