Forex Weekly Watch: July 28 – Aug. 1, 2014

EUR/JPY

EUR/JPY 1 Hour Forex Chart

EUR/JPY 1 Hour Forex Chart

The recent risk aversion flows that we’ve seen all July on geopolitical fears seems to have calmed down last week, but in my opinion, the downtrend looks like it’s still intact.  The market is still trading below the moving averages, but we are seeing stochastics  potentially indicating that the supply of sellers may be light around current levels.

I’ll be watching for a pullback higher to the 137.00 – 137.50 for a short entry if risk aversion sentiment is still in play, but keep in mind that on the longer term picture, EUR/JPY is in an uptrend and 136.50 is a major support level.

  • WO: 136.74
  • Top WATR: 137.51
  • Bottom WATR: 135.98
  • PWH: 137.34
  • PWL: 136.36

GBP/JPY

GBP/JPY 1 Hour Forex Chart

GBP/JPY 1 Hour Forex Chart

Volatility dropped for Guppy last week, potentially creating a “consolidation-breakout” scenario on the one hour forex chart.  The forex calendar is pretty heavy this week with mid and top tier events, so it’s not a far out possibility that we could see a breakout.

If that is the case, we still may see a limited move as forex traders sit on the sidelines until after the monster economic event–the monthly U.S. employment report–at the end of the week. Until then, I’m checking out both top/bottom WATR and previous week high/low levels for reversal candlesticks and quick trades.

  • WO: 172.81
  • Top WATR: 173.83
  • Bottom WATR: 171.80
  • PWH: 173.47
  • PWL: 172.60

EUR/GBP

EUR/GBP 1 Hour Forex Chart

EUR/GBP 1 Hour Forex Chart

Last week was sort of a snoozer for EUR/GBP seeing as how the market closed at the end of the week not too far from where it opened.  I think the the long-term bias is still to the downside, but I think there may be less conviction as the BOE minutes last week had traders thinking the rate hikes will come later than previously thought.

I’d still go along with the downtrend, but I’d be cautious for now, looking for a pull back to the PWH and top WATR to start building my position.  Any moves to the downside would most likely be limited to the bottom WATR/PWL levels around .7875

  • WO: .7911
  • Top WATR: .7950
  • Bottom WATR: .7873
  • PWH: .7940
  • PWL: .7873

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  • ForExchange

    Hi Cyclopip!

    Why do you say that the longer-term EUR/JPY is uptrend? I am looking at my charts but do not see any confirmation of that.

    Thanks,
    ForExchange

    • Cyclopip

      Hey ForExchange… check out the weekly and daily charts and you should see the market moving higher pretty steadily since hitting the 2012 low just above the 94.00 handle. On those charts, it looks like we’re still in the early stages of a pullback. Probably won’t turn up higher in the short-term but it is something to be aware of.