Weekly Watch: Dec. 9 – 13, 2013
Trends in the crosses finally found ran out of steam last week, and with a light calendar for my top 3 pairs to watch, we may be in for much calmer price action. Check out the areas to watch in EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY, and EUR/GBP!
EUR/JPY bulls stayed in control last week, but not until after a failed PWH break lead to a pullback and buying opportunity at a better price. Now, after a 250 pip rally (partly thanks to the Mario Draghi) from that pullback, it looks like it might be time for consolidation.
The trend is still higher, so a pullback to the bottom WATR area (also a major psychological level of 140.00) could be another buying opportunity to play the overall trend. But with the opening gap being filled and the bounce higher from last week’s high in the rear view mirror, it could be a steady grind higher from the week open with 142.40 as a possible exhaustion point.
- WO: 141.14
- Top WATR: 142.42
- Bottom WATR: 139.86
- PWH: 140.79
- PWL: 138.42
Price action in guppy was pretty similar to its cousin above with an early week pullback to the bottom WATR level before rocketing higher. With a lack of any major tier 1 events from the UK or Japan, we may also see an upside bias on GBP/JPY on lower volatility.
Of course, if there is no direction, then the 169.00 – 169.50 area could be targeted for profit taking and/or countertrend traders. After this super rally the high 150’s, who knows…we may even see a double top form!
- WO: 168.24
- Top WATR: 169.78
- Bottom WATR: 166.71
- PWH: 169.15
- PWL: 165.87
We got a big ol’ reversal from the downtrend thanks to broad EUR bullishness, and with the market now testing the .8400 area, traders have to ask themselves whether or not a break higher is eminent or if this is a perfect chance to get into the longer-term downtrend?
For those looking to fade the strong move last week back to the downside, .8440 – .8450 is the area to watch for all of you conservative types. But if we see buying support on a pullback lower to .8330 area, it could be another leg up and maybe even new trend higher!
- WO: .8383
- Top WATR: .8438
- Bottom WATR: .8329
- PWH: .8390
- PWL: .8251