Looks like I couldn’t carry over my Q1 success thanks to a shift in market themes & sentiment, as well as my inability to shift with the change. Here’s a quick Q2 forex review.
Basic Forex Trading Stats
Total Number of Trades Ideas: 9
Breakeven/No Trade: 2
Win % (winning trades / triggered trades): 25%
Average Winning Trade in %: +0.34%
Average Losing Trade in %: -0.88%
Largest Drawdown: -3.51%
Q2 Total Realized Profit / Loss in %: -2.88%
I’ll start with the bad because to be honest, there really wasn’t much good to it. After a first small win in AUD/CAD, I took a string of four losses with a missed (and potentially big win) long GBP/JPY trade idea in the middle. Take out that Guppy trade idea and the drawdown was a sizable -3.51%. And speaking of missed trades, not shifting to the downside after taking a small hit on my early NZD/CAD long caused me to miss out on one of the biggest moves of the quarter: the broad Kiwi selloff. That change in sentiment was also the cause of taking a hit on my EUR/NZD short. Overall, it was pretty much all bad since I couldn’t counter my losses with my wins as there was no strong move on my winning AUD/CAD trade, and I exited my final trade for the quarter, a GBP/AUD long trade, too early.
With that quarter in the books, I’m down a small -2.09% year-to-date, but more importantly, I’m lagging my benchmarks: the Barclay Hedge Currency Traders Index (+2.59% YTD thru the end of June) and the Barclay Hedge Discretionary Traders Index (+0.90% YTD thru end of June).
Overall, I’ve gotta let go of my biases, especially when price action confirms the change in sentiment. The euro was a tricky one to trade with the Greek story constantly shifting throughout the quarter, but the Kiwi was a no-brainer to start shorting after the RBNZ preempted and executed a rate cut in June. Something to work on for Q3, which should be just as interesting as the second quarter.
That’s all I got for now forex friends…How did you do in Q2 2015? Please share your thoughts in the comment box below. Thanks for stopping by and good luck in Q3 2015!