Trade Updates: Long NZD/CAD and EUR/AUD

Now that the BOC had its say and the ECB is about to take the stage, I’ve got these adjustments on my NZD/CAD and EUR/AUD trades. Before reading on, make sure you review my initial trade setups first!

Long NZD/CAD

Price spiked higher on a more cautious BOC statement but not enough to reach my original buy stop order at .9675 so I decided to wait for a quick pullback entry to .9600. With fundamentals strongly favoring the Kiwi against the Loonie at this point, it also made sense to set a tighter stop at .9375 below the 4-hour ascending triangle support.

NZD/CAD 4-hour Forex Chart

NZD/CAD 4-hour Forex Chart

I’m keeping my buy stop order at .9675 but I’ve made adjustments to my position size to account for the tighter stop of 300 pips. I’ll still be aiming for a large profit target of 900 pips but I’ll be trailing my stop and would likely reevaluate my trade once price hits potentially strong resistance at parity.

Long EUR/AUD

Yep, this one’s still open, fellas! I seem to have gotten faked out on what seemed like a double bottom neckline break but my one good eye seems to be seeing an inverse head and shoulders pattern that’s just forming. I’ve got a wide stop below the lows at 1.4425 anyway so there’s room to cut my losses in case price falls below the 1.4650 area.

EUR/AUD 4-hour Forex Chart

EUR/AUD 4-hour Forex Chart

The ECB statement could make or break this trade, as analysts are divided on what the central bank might do next. As Forex Gump outlined in his ECB Statement Preview, additional easing expectations have already been priced in so there’s a good chance that not-so-aggressive moves might be considered a disappointment.

Still, I’m keeping close tabs on the 1.4600 major psychological level as a break below this area could confirm that markets believe that the ECB is acting aggressively enough, opening the door for longer-term euro losses. I’m thinking the outcome could be as tough to predict as Taylor Swift’s next victim – I mean, love interest- but I’ll keep y’all posted through my Twitter account if I’m gonna jump ship!

As always, don’t risk more than 1% of your account on a single trade and make sure you read our risk disclosure if you’re thinking of taking the same setups.

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  • Nazeem

    I am noob and a bit confused about your NZDCAD analysis.

    On the daily I have a huge inverted head and shoulders pattern on the uptrend which is the only indication of a bullish continuation that I can see.

    On the 1HR chart I have a rising wedge for reversal and divergence on Stochastic and MACD.

    I will be staying out of this one though until price move towards my SMA 50 and that neckline on the daily.

    Where am I going wrong?

    • Cyclopip

      I’m seeing that inverse head and shoulders, too. I’ve got the neckline around .9500-.9550 so it looked like the pair already made an upside break and a pullback. I do see that rising wedge more clearly now, and I agree that it might be better to stay patient until price does show that confirmation you’re looking for.