Another Shot at GBP/JPY Uptrend? – Adjustment

Trade Adjustment: 2013-11-29 3:30 ET

My trade has been triggered and the market has nicely rolled higher.  After finally getting a decent pullback on the move, I’ve decided to pump up my position a little bit but tighten up before the week’s close.

GBP/JPY forex trade update

GBP/JPY forex trade update

I’ve been trailing my stop this entire week, and originally, I wanted to close out this trade to avoid weekend risk and then re-assess on Monday.  But I thought the pullback today might be an opportunity to get a little bit bigger in this trade to maximize my profit.

Since there have been little or no retracements since the rally started around 159.00, I think 167.00 could possibly draw in more buyers quickly, as well as keep me safe from triggering my tightly adjusted stop.  Here’s what I did:

Added another third position at 167.00.  Move full position stop to 166.50; Locked in +250 pips on first position.

So, if the market continues lower today to hit 166.50, I’ll have a net gain of 200 pips (+250 pips 1st position; -50 pips 2nd position), which is not a bad way to close out the week.  If it doesn’t and the market continues on higher to then that’s awesome as well.   I’ve got 169.00 in sight as the next major resistance level, and then 180.00 after that.  But for now, I’m glad to lock in profits and make it a stress free trade.

I don’t foresee another update on this trade in to the close for the week, so if I don’t see ya again, have a great weekend!

Trade Idea: 2013-11-26 1:15

It’s a new week and maybe I’ve got another shot at jumping in the Sterling rally against the Japanese Yen.  Is the pullback we’re seeing another signal for the bulls?

GBP/JPY 1 hour forex chart

GBP/JPY 1 hour forex chart

My bullish Sterling bias hasn’t changed since my last trade idea, as well as my bearish yen bias, and this time I’m not going to let a shallow retracement keep me from playing guppy to the upside.  But I’m being conservative about it by scaling in to a long position; gonna nibble a bit at current levels, with another nibble around the 50% Fib retracement level and bottom WATR area.

Now, I don’t have a Japanese monetary policy statement this week to kick off a 500 pip rally, but 200 pips is not out of the realm of possibility given guppy’s normal volatility range behavior.  My stop will be pretty tight at 100 pips below my second entry, but I think the trend will keep me safe unless the story changes.  Here’s what I’m doing:

Long 1/3 position of GBP/JPY at 164.00, stop at 162.00, profit target at 166.00

Long 1/3 position of GBP/JPY at 163.00, stop at 162.00, profit target at 166.00

Remember to never risk more than 1% of a trading account on any single trade. Adjust position sizes accordingly. Create your own ideas and don’t follow what I do. Risk Disclosure.

With this forex trade structure, my average entry is 163.50, and if both positions are triggered, it’s a potential 2.5:1 return-on-risk with only 0.66% risk. Of course, I could be totally wrong with this trade, but if not and the market moves higher in my favor I may add another third of a full position to my trade.

This week has a few potential catalysts to spark volatility, mainly for the British Pound (Inflation report & quarterly GDP revision). I think both has the potential to be bullish for Sterling given the recent positive data for jobs and PMI’s. If that’s the scenario, should be a great week…and if not…well that’s why I always use a stop! Limit risk always! Stay tuned!

  • cyclopip

    My GBP/JPY position is up over 100 pips, so I’m adjusting my stop to breakeven at 164.00. Still going for 166.00!

  • cyclopip

    Okay that was quick… GBP/JPY at 165.91 now… adjusting stop to 165.00….no target and trailing from here!

  • Gizmosis350k

    Lol, may be some time yet before we can get back to the Nick B. 4H bounce and breakouts – but I’m ready and waiting @@

    • cyclopip

      haha it might be a while before it hits your entry, but you gotta stick to what works for you. Good luck Gizmosis!

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  • cyclopip

    Adjusting my stop on my GBP/JPY long to 166.50. Looking to add on a pull back to 166.00…time to get bigger!

  • FxSniper

    Long term, pair is clearly bullish but at this time, I shorted on retrace play at 168.16 and will try and hold for 163.00 before getting on the long side again.

    • cyclopip

      Thanks for sharing FxSniper… hopefully I get out before the market goes your way… good luck!

  • FxSniper

    eurjpy is even a better short imo and i will try and reach for 135.50 or at least 136.000 before actively looking for a long trade. I shorted it too at 129.28 resistance point

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  • cyclopip

    GBP/JPY long adjustment ahead of major data: Closed 1st position (opened@164.00) @ 168.60. 2nd position (opened at 167.00), & orders for a 3rd (buy at 168.00) on. Full stop at 167.50.

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  • FxSniper

    GBPJPY and eurjpy are both fashioning out good correction tops. I will hold my shorts and look for 163.00 and 135.50/136.00 area respectively

    • cyclopip

      Hey FxSniper, it looks like you might get the pullback you’ve been waiting for. My only concern is that if the story doesn’t change with the BOE and US NFP this week, those will be shallow pullbacks. Stay safe friend and good luck!

  • FxSniper

    Pairs to watch out for in the coming days are euraud and gbpaud. I’m taking corrective shorts on euraud now and hope to buy back around 1.4500, which should serve as a strong springboard for another proper crack at new year highs. I will be targeting 1.5500 from there. My eyes are peeled on both pairs.

    • cyclopip

      Not a big fan of EUR/AUD, but I’m looking at GBP/AUD to go long. Glad to see we have a trade we can agree on… good luck on those trades as well!