Jumping in the EUR/GBP Downtrend

I’m still a big fan of sterling against the euro, so when I saw this juicy pullback, I just couldn’t pass it up!

EUR/GBP 1 hour forex chart

EUR/GBP 1 hour forex chart

I’m still in the camp that thinks the British pound will continue to be one of the stronger major currencies like it was in 2013, and that the U.K. will continue to be strong relative to a stabilizing Europe.  So, I’ve been waiting for a nice pullback to play the longer-term downtrend for my first trade of 2014.

It looks like I may have got that this week as the pair rallied higher to test the previous week high (PWH) and top of its weekly average volatility range (WATR).  Since it looks like that area held as resistance and the market is moving lower, I’ve decided to take a small short position, possibly turning it into a bigger short position if it goes my way.  My stop is above the recent swing high as a move above the consolidation is a sign that buyers are back in control, while I’m shorting last week’s lows for a nice potential return-on-risk.  Here’s what I am doing:

Short EUR/GBP half position at .8320, stop at .8370, profit target at .8230

Remember to never risk more than 1% of a trading account on any single trade. Adjust position sizes accordingly. Create your own ideas and don’t follow what I do. Risk Disclosure.

This initial position gives me a potential return-on-risk of 1.80:1, on 0.50% risk. If the market does go my way and we see a strong break of my soft profit target at .8230, I may scale another position to maximize my profit.

  • Speculator

    Looks like a decent play. there’s a rising trend channel as well that was just recently broken. If resistance holds, there is some extra room left in that move for some profit.

    • cyclopip

      Thanks for your input Speculator. UK retail sales helped me out on this trade and I got out with a nice return-on-risk. Check it out on my latest blog update!

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  • You have a strong idea. To eliminate hypertension completely on earth in the next century. Bravo?

    • cyclopip

      Thanks Goddy!