Cross-Eyeing: EUR/CHF – Trade Closed

Trade Closed: 2007-08-30 08:05

It has been a wild ride for the financial markets for the past few weeks, and yesterday was no different as EUR/CHF rallied back up to our entry point to close out our remaining position at break even.

1st Half: +30 pips
2nd Half: +00 pips
Total: +30 pips

In retrospect, a trailing stop on the remaining position would have netted us about 60 more pips, so in the future I will implement that as a part of our trading plans.

Currently, the pair is trading back up at the downtrending 240 MA’s. I will look to short again very soon….stay tuned!

Trade Update: 2007-08-29 11:00

Our trade is still in play, even after a small rally in EUR/CHF. The pair has found resistance at the 38% retracement level of the strong downward move from 1.6689 to 1.6176.

We will continue to hold this position as recent price action appears to be a small retracement in the longer term downtrend. Good luck!

Trade Update: 2007-08-28 12:40

We enter into a short position on EUR/CHF at 1.6390 during last night’s Asia trading session and hit our first profit target during the morning US Session.

We locked in 30 pips and moved the stop on our remain position to break even to create a risk free position. We have the FOMC Meeting Minutes coming up very soon which could affect other currencies besides USD indirectly.

We will hold onto this trade and see what happens. Good luck!

Trade Idea: 2007-08-27 14:57

crosseyed chart

Today we will check out a possible turn in EUR/CHF as technicals show the trend may be done.

On the chart, we can see 240 MA’s trend lower and stochastics are beginning to turn lower from overbought territory. Also, we can see hidden divergence as price action made higher highs and stochastics highs do not.

First, we will wait for the pair to move lower for a trend reversal confirmation. Our stop will be above the 240 MA’s.

Short EUR/CHF at 1.6390, stop at 1.6460, pt1 at 1.6360, pt2 at 1.6300.

Remember to never risk more than 1% of your account on any single trade. Adjust position sizes accordingly.

Good luck!

  • jangez

    Hey – I was wondering what indicators do you use for your 4 hour charts?

    you have 5 MA’s?

    what values do you use for your stochs?

    Thanks

  • dinosaurXXX

    does technical analysis applies to those exotic like TWD , CNY , ruppiah , thai baht …….

    for SGD , i know it does !!!

  • jangez

    Hey – I was wondering what indicators do you use for your 4 hour charts?

    you have 5 MA’s?

    what values do you use for your stochs?

    Thanks

  • dinosaurXXX

    does technical analysis applies to those exotic like TWD , CNY , ruppiah , thai baht …….

    for SGD , i know it does !!!

  • PipsiCola

    I’ve noticed that your first target has been hit this morning. Good trade! :)

    However, I also noticed that there are three medium-relevance news-items coming out today; two for the EUR, and one for CHF.

    Are you going to ride through those and continue hoping for your second target, or lock in your profits now while they’re hot?

  • PipsiCola

    I see Fibonacci support at 1.6353 (38.2% level of 1.6205 – 1.6446). If this can be pierced, the next support level should be at 1.6325 (50%, same range). While I’m not in on this trade myself, I’ve got my fingers crossed for you all. Good luck!

  • cyclopip

    on the 4 hour chart i have the 240 Weighted Moving Average on the High, Low, and Close. Bollingerbands with 1 and 2 standard deviation settings. And the stochastics are set to 10, 3, 3 i believe….

  • cyclopip

    I think technical analysis works in almost any market, but in my view they work better the more liquid the market is. In relation to the major pairs, the exotic currencies have low liquidity, and I think their movements are driven more by fundamentals and movements in the USD or EUR, thus making it a little more difficult to find guidance with technicals.

  • PipsiCola

    I’ve noticed that your first target has been hit this morning. Good trade! :)

    However, I also noticed that there are three medium-relevance news-items coming out today; two for the EUR, and one for CHF.

    Are you going to ride through those and continue hoping for your second target, or lock in your profits now while they’re hot?

  • PipsiCola

    I see Fibonacci support at 1.6353 (38.2% level of 1.6205 – 1.6446). If this can be pierced, the next support level should be at 1.6325 (50%, same range). While I’m not in on this trade myself, I’ve got my fingers crossed for you all. Good luck!

  • cyclopip

    on the 4 hour chart i have the 240 Weighted Moving Average on the High, Low, and Close. Bollingerbands with 1 and 2 standard deviation settings. And the stochastics are set to 10, 3, 3 i believe….

  • cyclopip

    I think technical analysis works in almost any market, but in my view they work better the more liquid the market is. In relation to the major pairs, the exotic currencies have low liquidity, and I think their movements are driven more by fundamentals and movements in the USD or EUR, thus making it a little more difficult to find guidance with technicals.