Cross-Eyeing EUR/CHF – Trade Closed

Trade Closed: 2008-04-01 14:05

Positive US ISM data brushed off recession fears, ramping up risk appetite in carry trades and the global markets. This pushed up our short position back above our entry point and up to our stop area.

-90 pips
Total: -1%

We will see how long this sentiment will last as many traders are looking for the end of the crisis while others are looking to sell the rallies. Stay tuned for a new trade idea very soon!

Trade Update: 2008-03-31 17:36

Since our short entry, the pair continues to move forward in a ranging fashion. After testing 1.5750, we’re back to trading around our entry just below 1.5700.

I will continue to hold as I think global risk aversion is still in play. No major events for either the Euro or Swiss Franc, besides Swiss CPI this week, so look for technicals and global risk appetite to guide this currency pair’s movements. Stay tuned for updates!

Trade Idea: 2008-03-26 09:10

crosseyed chart

We’re going to tackle EUR/CHF once again. After a bit of consolidation above 1.57, it looks like sellers may have won the battle as the pair may head south once again.

Like Pipcrawler said in his most recent post, there was no major change in the fundamentals, and after the brief rally after the Fed moves to bring liquidity and the whole Bear Sterns news, traders may be back to selling on risk aversion and a slowdown in global growth. I guess people realized that one string of Fed moves within a few months won’t fix years of misconduct in the credit markets and the consequences in a week. Go figure.

So, we’re going to keep it simple today and look for the pair to go lower below the consolidation area.

Short EUR/CHF at market (1.5690), stop at 1.5780, pt1 at 1.5600, pt2 at 1.5525

Remember to never risk more than 1% of your account on any single trade. Adjust position sizes accordingly.

Stay tuned for updates and good luck!

  • gadamj

    I’m sorry if I am asking anything out of turn but what are the settings on your stochs?

    By the way, seems like a great opportunity, let’s see how this turns.

    Thanks.

  • avedis1

    Thank you for the tip. Took 13 pip profit and got out. Thanks again, Avi.

  • demontez

    Sorry if i am being a pain but it seems i receive this message late as i am based in london and i did not get this information till 13.40GMT. so i am late in taking action. but i am still watching for those retracement levels.

  • gadamj

    I’m sorry if I am asking anything out of turn but what are the settings on your stochs?

    By the way, seems like a great opportunity, let’s see how this turns.

    Thanks.

  • avedis1

    Thank you for the tip. Took 13 pip profit and got out. Thanks again, Avi.

  • demontez

    Sorry if i am being a pain but it seems i receive this message late as i am based in london and i did not get this information till 13.40GMT. so i am late in taking action. but i am still watching for those retracement levels.

  • PipDaddy

    Currently short.

    CHF – SNB Board Member Jordan Speaks at 17:00 GMT.

    Any thoughts on what we could see just prior to or after this news event?

  • PipDaddy

    Currently short.

    CHF – SNB Board Member Jordan Speaks at 17:00 GMT.

    Any thoughts on what we could see just prior to or after this news event?

  • peej

    Cyclopip if you back out on the chart you can see an upward trendline drawn on the lows of 3/18 and 3/21 that shows no signs of breaking. What are your thoughts on this trendline breaking to the downside?

  • cyclopip

    Hey gadamj….My stoch settings are standard 14, 3, 3….

  • cyclopip

    Hey avedis1… If you are referring to the emails, yes they do get to subscribers much later that the posting time. We do not use an email service that sends out instantly when a post is made. It pretty much justs check at the end of the day I think. There are no set times at which we post; we post when we see a good market set up. So, just check back regularly if you can. Thanks!

  • cyclopip

    Hey PipDaddy… the moves of this pair generally correlate to risk aversion/appetite in the global markets, so that’s where I based my directional bias. I don’t look too much into the fundamentals of the Swiss Franc, so I have no opinion on that event. Generally, the Eurozone events have a greater short term affect, if any, on this pair.

  • peej

    Cyclopip if you back out on the chart you can see an upward trendline drawn on the lows of 3/18 and 3/21 that shows no signs of breaking. What are your thoughts on this trendline breaking to the downside?

  • cyclopip

    Hey gadamj….My stoch settings are standard 14, 3, 3….

  • cyclopip

    Hey avedis1… If you are referring to the emails, yes they do get to subscribers much later that the posting time. We do not use an email service that sends out instantly when a post is made. It pretty much justs check at the end of the day I think. There are no set times at which we post; we post when we see a good market set up. So, just check back regularly if you can. Thanks!

  • cyclopip

    Hey PipDaddy… the moves of this pair generally correlate to risk aversion/appetite in the global markets, so that’s where I based my directional bias. I don’t look too much into the fundamentals of the Swiss Franc, so I have no opinion on that event. Generally, the Eurozone events have a greater short term affect, if any, on this pair.

  • peej

    The trendline I referred to above was challenged again at 18:00 GMT and price promptly reversed. Seriously I want this trendline to break but it is not going to go down easily and may take a while.

  • peej

    The trendline I referred to above was challenged again at 18:00 GMT and price promptly reversed. Seriously I want this trendline to break but it is not going to go down easily and may take a while.

  • pazira

    Hey peej I entirely agree with you. See no reason yet for the uptrend to be broken. Plus on 4HR chart 28/03/08 at about 02.00am (GMT) there is nice cross-over of two moving averages supported with RSI>50, Stochastic going up and MACD going from – to +, whole in all perfect long entry. I bailed out of short idea with small loss, now long at 1.5717 with S/L 1.5660 and TP1 1.5850.
    Hope this works.

  • pazira

    Hey peej I entirely agree with you. See no reason yet for the uptrend to be broken. Plus on 4HR chart 28/03/08 at about 02.00am (GMT) there is nice cross-over of two moving averages supported with RSI>50, Stochastic going up and MACD going from – to +, whole in all perfect long entry. I bailed out of short idea with small loss, now long at 1.5717 with S/L 1.5660 and TP1 1.5850.
    Hope this works.

  • peej

    Pazira, long for short term probably a good play but I would lock in stop at break even ASAP. Why? I looked at charts again and if you draw a trendline from high area on 3/12 and highs on 3/25 we see a BIG triangle forming. We are very close to a huge breakout soon. Down may indeed be the direction since there has been so much assault on the lower side of the triangle. Would like to hear what Cyclopip has to say on this.

  • peej

    Pazira, long for short term probably a good play but I would lock in stop at break even ASAP. Why? I looked at charts again and if you draw a trendline from high area on 3/12 and highs on 3/25 we see a BIG triangle forming. We are very close to a huge breakout soon. Down may indeed be the direction since there has been so much assault on the lower side of the triangle. Would like to hear what Cyclopip has to say on this.

  • cyclopip

    Thanks for the comments guys, and I do see your points. There is an ascending triangle in the works, but I’m bias to the downside with the direction of the overall trend. Also, I take a look at global risk sentiment and we are still in the middle of the markets trying to fix a financial crisis. So, I’m going to hold short, but of course, if we see a break to the upside, I will have to take a loss and change my views. All part of the trading biz. Good luck and stay tuned!

  • cyclopip

    Thanks for the comments guys, and I do see your points. There is an ascending triangle in the works, but I’m bias to the downside with the direction of the overall trend. Also, I take a look at global risk sentiment and we are still in the middle of the markets trying to fix a financial crisis. So, I’m going to hold short, but of course, if we see a break to the upside, I will have to take a loss and change my views. All part of the trading biz. Good luck and stay tuned!

  • gadamj

    thanks for the settings, I appreciate it. I’m in this one with you.

  • gadamj

    thanks for the settings, I appreciate it. I’m in this one with you.

  • pazira

    Bummer, stops were trigered in short EUR/CHF trade. My stops for long witheld 1.5660 level.Long EUR/CHF booked small 70pips profit. Stock markets now are filled with a false optimism and that is lifting market up on short lived euphoria. Of course that lift will last till next sceleton gonna fell out of the closet, so short crosses any time soon. Any views ?

  • pazira

    Bummer, stops were trigered in short EUR/CHF trade. My stops for long witheld 1.5660 level.Long EUR/CHF booked small 70pips profit. Stock markets now are filled with a false optimism and that is lifting market up on short lived euphoria. Of course that lift will last till next sceleton gonna fell out of the closet, so short crosses any time soon. Any views ?