Cross-Eyeing EUR/CHF - Trade Closed
Trade Closed: 2008-03-24 15:23
It looks like EUR/CHF started off the week with a pop to the upside, closing our position out at our adjusted stop price.
1st Half: +100 pips
2nd Half: +100 pips
Total: +1% gain
The next upside resistance area to watch is around 1.5900. The pair is still in a down trend, but if equities hold up, risk aversion and carry trades may come back into play for the time being. We'll have to adjust our outlook if that scenario plays out. We will continue to watch and wait, so stay tuned!
Trade Update: 2008-03-20 13:35
It took a few days, but we finally got triggered on our short EUR/CHF during the morning European trading session. 1.57 held as resistance and the pair drifted lower through out the day to hit our first profit target at 1.56. We closed a portion of our position to lock in profit and we moved our stop on our remaining position to breakeven.
We will hold onto this position and continue to target 1.54 and if we hit 1.55 I will adjust my stop to 1.56. Stay tuned and good luck!
Trade Idea: 2008-03-18 19:38
We have a resistance play setting up that may give us an opportunity to play the downtrend in EUR/CHF. Will it hold or will it buck the trend to start a new leg up?
We can see the pair has rallied back up to the downtrend line drawn as global markets have rallied as risk appetites have grown. Is this the end of the financial crisis? Is this the bottom of risk aversion? Recent events still need time to factor into the market, so for now we will roll with the trend lower.
On the chart, I've drawn trendlines that can be possible resistance areas. Stochastics aren't quite back up to overbought territory, so I will wait for the pair to test 1.57 before jumping in short. If the pair does break above the sloping trendline, I may setup a 'stop and reverse' trade to potentially catch a more higher. For now, here's my plan:
Short EUR/CHF at 1.5700, stop at 1.5800, pt1 at 1.5600, pt2 at 1.5400
Remember to never risk more than 1% of your account on any single trade. Adjust position sizes accordingly.
So, now that the Fed meeting is out of the way, we may see more rallies into the Asia and European trading session as risk appetites grow, but hopefully we will see sellers win out on risk aversion and carry trade unwinds. Good luck and stay tuned!
