February 2011 Monthly Archive

How I’m setting up the EUR/USD (distribution!) exhaustion

This set up is a classic distribution fade or “inside-the-range” short entry that will remain valid as long as the bears can maintain selling pressure at and below the February 2 high at 1.3861. Read more

Range-bound markets making you *crazy*? Here’s how I am handling them.

I have been focusing on longer-term time frames and the ranges on these charts because in my opinion, this time frame offers the ability to often stand above the fray of the intraday volatility and provide a clearer (more psychologically relevant) view of the trend. This has been especially the case with the recent happenings of Egypt and Libya effecting the market around the world. Read more

Why I’m still bearish (for now) on the U.S. Dollar.

There’s been a lot of talk about why the dollar “should” go up and my take has always been that by the time I hear it, it’s been “baked into the cake” aka already discounted.

That’s not to *dis* fundamentals. I simply feel that the rally from February 2 – 12 may have been when the fundamentals were moving the U.S. Dollar Index higher. Read more

A look at the daily GBP/USD: How do you know when to buy into a correction?

The GBP/USD is a perfect example of a current swing buy. A “swing” is another way of saying correction or a pullback in an uptrend or bounce in a downtrend. But how much of a correction is enough to offer support in the uptrend and resistance in the downtrend? Read more

What does the dollar’s correction mean to the longer-term fx trends?

The U.S. Dollar’s resistance at 79.00 will play a significant role in my continued expectation for the EUR/USD to bounce. I must avoid being too rigid however because a failure to notice a transition to a sideways market trend on the daily EUR/USD could put me on the wrong side of intraday trends as well as keep me bullish too long. Read more

Here are my “Seven Keys Notes”

I did a one-hour webinar this part weekend and it was about the seven keys to my trading that I introduced here yesterday. The series will continue but I thought I’d share the notes that I used in the presentation. Read more

My Seven Keys to Trading

I train in MMA (mixed martial arts) twice a week with one of my best friends. It’s a physical chess match as compared to the electronic chess match that is trading. I was speaking to my jiu jitsu sensei (teacher) after class today and the subject of what I did for a living came up. I explained that I was a currency trader and expected him to give me a blank stare. Read more

Respect the Market Trend

The USD/CAD is a perfect example of why the Directional Bias must be respected. The Directional Bias – if you haven’t already heard or read about it – is the market trend or psychology of the daily chart. Read more

Higher Bounces, Deeper Pullbacks.

The U.S. Dollar’s bounce from the 77.00 level today as ECB Press Conference drove the EUR/USD sharply lower and the better-than-expected Unemployment Claims number and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI helped boost the dollar, has been stronger than most expected, especially when considering tomorrow’s Non-Farm Payroll releases. Read more

The Dollar Accelerates Through 78.00

This move has been one that has been setting up for some time: The U.S. Dollar Index’s slide through 78.00. The break through this psychological level confirmed the negativity of the dollar’s place in the world amidst a surging euro and worldwide equities risk appetite. Read more