Greetings, earthlings! I’ve just finished crunching the numbers on the Triple SMA Crossover system and I gotta say, this forex mechanical system could use a bit of improvement. But first, here are the yearly backtest stats:
At first glance, the numbers don’t look too bad, as the system had close to a 50% win rate and an average win greater than the average loss. However, a review of the trades taken reveals that the system ended up positive just because of one big win:
Putting this in context, the last winning trade was scored during the months when markets had a very strong pro-dollar and anti-euro bias, right around the time when the ECB cut interest rates for the second instance and the Fed expressed an inclination to start tightening next year. Well, that was one lucky break!
The rest of the trades indicate that there’s a lot of room for improvement though, as the SMA crossover signal seems to be taking place late in the trend. Of course I’m still running the forward tests for this month but I’m not very hopeful that this can be able to score another huge win, given how we’re seeing a range-bound environment in the forex market these days. Got any tips on what kind of adjustments need to be made?