Forex System Update (Apr. 4-8, 2016): SMA Crossover Pullback

The SMA Crossover Pullback forex system was off to a bumpy start this month and it still appears to be shaky so far. If you’re wondering what I’m talking about, make sure you look at the trading rules and risk management adjustments first. Oh, and I’ve got the compiled results for Q1 2016, too!

With volatility usually getting turned down a few notches for the second quarter of the year, it’s understandable why this trend-following system is struggling. EUR/JPY had a long position open but this got stopped out even before a new crossover was seen. There have been no pullback signals for this one yet, though.

EUR/JPY 1-hour Forex Chart

EUR/JPY 1-hour Forex Chart

AUD/USD also had an upward crossover and a long pullback signal, but this position had to be closed when a new crossover formed. Soon after, a short pullback signal was generated.

AUD/USD 1-hour Forex Chart

AUD/USD 1-hour Forex Chart

As for EUR/USD, its long position from the other week is still open but seems to be going nowhere.

EUR/USD 1-hour Forex Chart

EUR/USD 1-hour Forex Chart

GBP/USD had a new downward crossover but there have been no pullback signals yet.

GBP/USD 1-hour Forex Chart

GBP/USD 1-hour Forex Chart

Here’s a summary of the positions as of April 8, 2016:

SMA Crossover Pullback Positions as of Apr. 8, 2016
Pair Position Entry SL PT Status P/L  (pips) P/L  (%)
EUR/JPY Long 127.10 125.60 130.10 Closed -150 -1.00
AUD/USD Long .7650 .7500 .7950 Closed -15 -0.10
EUR/USD Long 1.1325 1.1175 1.1625 Open
AUD/USD Short .7550 .7700 .7250 Open

With that, the system ended up with a 165-pip loss or a 1.10% dent on the account. Not so good so far!

Looking back to previous results from April and May last year shows that choppiness did play a factor in yielding a few small losses, but a couple of big wins still managed to keep the system profitable then. I’m taking this as a sign that the system might still be worth playing for the rest of Q2, keeping my robot fingers crossed that it’ll score some winners soon. Stay tuned for my updates!

  • Generally speaking an upward crossover by shorter-term MA (100 SMA) on a longer-term MA (200 SMA) could constitute a bullish signal while a downward crossover by a shorter-term MA on a longer-term MA could be a bearish one. Hope this helps!

  • Cool! Thanks for sharing!