Forex System Q1 2016 Review: SMA Crossover Pullback

Sorry for my absence in the past week, forex earthlings, but I’ve been busy crunching the numbers for this Q1 2016 review of the SMA Crossover Pullback mechanical system. If this is the first time you’re hearing about this, make sure you look at the trading rules and risk management adjustments first.

Before we take a look at the final score for the quarter, here’s a quick rundown of the signals for the past couple of weeks.

If you recall from my earlier update, AUD/USD had a long position with the trailing stop activated, and this was triggered on a huge pullback. A new crossover formed and a short signal was generated soon after but the full stop was hit, as this turned out to be another large pullback from the uptrend.

AUD/USD 1-hour Forex Chart

AUD/USD 1-hour Forex Chart

EUR/USD also had a long position opened a few weeks back and its 150-pip trailing stop was also hit for a small profit. A new crossover and short signal was seen later on, but the full stop loss was reached when the uptrend resumed.

EUR/USD 1-hour Forex Chart

EUR/USD 1-hour Forex Chart

GBP/USD made a downward crossover followed by a short signal after hitting its profit target in the previous week, but this position was stopped out as well.

GBP/USD 1-hour Forex Chart

GBP/USD 1-hour Forex Chart

EUR/JPY fared much better with its new short position, as this one was stopped out at breakeven thanks to the 150-pip trailing stop. A long signal emerged at the end of the month but this one’s still open.

EUR/JPY 1-hour Forex Chart

EUR/JPY 1-hour Forex Chart

Here’s a summary of the positions as of March 31:

SMA Crossover Pullback Positions as of Mar. 31, 2016
Pair Position Entry SL PT Status P/L  (pips) P/L  (%)
AUD/USD Long .7400 .7250 .7700 Closed +44 +0.29
EUR/USD Long 1.0950 1.0800 1.1250 Closed +115 +0.77
GBP/USD Short 1.4150 1.4300 1.3850 Closed -150 -1.00
EUR/JPY Short 126.15 127.65 123.15 Closed 0 0
AUD/USD Short .7540 .7690 .7240 Closed -150 -1.00
EUR/USD Short 1.1200 1.1350 1.0900 Closed -150 -1.00
EUR/JPY Long 127.10 125.60 130.00 Open

For this period, the SMA Crossover Pullback system had a 291-pip loss or a 1.94% dent on the account, which wasn’t exactly the strong finish I expected. Still, the numbers for Q1 are lookin’ pretty good. Here they are:

SMA Crossover Pullback Profit/Loss for Q1 2016
Week P/L in pips P/L in %
Jan 4-8 +200 +1.33
Jan 11-15 0 0
Jan 18-22 +80 +0.53
Jan 25-29 -260 -1.74
Feb 1-5 +600 +4.00
Feb 8-12 +150 +1.00
Feb 15-19 +45 +0.30
Feb 22-26 +5 +0.03
Feb 29-Mar 4 +160 +1.07
Mar 7-11 +600 +4.00
Mar 14-31 -291 -1.94

All in all, the forex mechanical system scored a 1,289-pip win for the quarter, amounting to a 8.58% gain on the account. The system managed to end in the green for 8 out of 11 weeks, with one breakeven week and only two losing weeks. Not so bad, eh?

I still haven’t gotten around to coding this EA just yet but if any of you guys were able to do so, don’t be shy to share it with the rest of the community so we can put our heads together and figure out if any improvements can still be made. Looking forward to seeing how this system fares for the next few months!