Forex System Update: SMA Crossover Pullback (July 27-31, 2015)

Greetings, my dear humans! Here’s an update on the forex signals made by the SMA Crossover Pullback mechanical system on the currency pairs I’m watching. If this is the first time you’re reading about this strategy, make sure you check out its forex trading rules right here.

As I’ve indicated in my earlier blog post, there was only one entry signal the other week but a couple of new crossovers were made. Unfortunately, the short position on EUR/JPY had to be closed early when the moving averages made an upward crossover.

EUR/JPY 1-hour Forex Chart

EUR/JPY 1-hour Forex Chart

The pair gave a pullback entry signal soon after, and so did EUR/USD.

EUR/USD 1-hour Forex Chart

EUR/USD 1-hour Forex Chart

As for GBP/USD, the pair’s short entry position last week immediately hit its stop prior to another new crossover.

GBP/USD 1-hour Forex Chart

GBP/USD 1-hour Forex Chart

And for AUD/USD, well, the pair still hasn’t seen any new crossovers so there haven’t been any valid entry signals yet.

AUD/USD 1-hour Forex Chart

AUD/USD 1-hour Forex Chart

Here are the latest positions:

SMA Crossover Pullback Positions as of July 29, 2015
Pair Position Entry SL PT Status P/L  (pips) P/L  (%)
EUR/JPY Short 135.50 137.00 132.50 Closed -9 -0.06%
GBP/USD Short 1.5525 1.5675 1.5325 Closed -150 -1.00
EUR/JPY Long 135.80 134.30 138.80 Open
EUR/USD Long 1.1040 1.0890 1.1340 Open

All in all, the pair saw a 159-pip loss for the previous week, amounting to a 1.06% dent on the account. Now this has turned out to be the third consecutive week that the SMA Crossover Pullback mechanical forex system churned out an overall loss so I’m a bit worried. Heck, it already erased half of the 6% gain it made prior to all this!

Then again the market environment has been ranging so far, and I’m still feeling positive that the system can get back on a good streak once stronger trends start forming again. As my buddy HitchBOT said before he got gruesomely decapitated in Philadelphia, it’s tough for a robot out here!

Imma take a moment of silence for my fallen comrade right now but I’ll be back next week, hopefully with better updates. See ya!

  • Ken

    This system is really top-notch in that if a new trend has formed you def get in it early and really have the potential for a big gain. You aren’t going to miss any strong trends provided they have at least one early pullback trapping traders on the wrong side.
    This system is just one of the best conceptually. I think the stop and target can be improved though. I love the entry, do not love the exit. Why not base the exit on however far the last pull back went? If we’re buying after coming out of oversold conditions……shouldn’t we sell if price breaks that previous low? Might be 20 pips, 30 pips etc. That’s a much much better stop, really making our losses small or letting us take a bigger trade.
    How about looking at a longer term chart for out target instead of fixed number? I mean…..we’re trying to get in on a new trend. If we actually caught one…….there should be a logical place it can get to on a higher timeframe before hitting a wall. That should be our target.
    the r/r of 2/1 is not bad…..but we can probably get it to 3/1 with almost the same win percentage by improving the exits. The fixed-pip idea doesn’t make sense to me ever….let’s look at the previous price action as our guide for better exits.
    Love the entry concept though.

    • Yep I also believe the entry rules do make a lot of sense in terms of determining the trend then finding a good spot to enter, I’m still trying to work out the kinks with the stops and targets though. I’ll look into incorporating tighter stops below the pullback and going for larger targets (sounds good for R:R!) and possibly adjusting those figures based on the average movement of each pair. I just used fixed pip numbers for exits to simplify things but I do agree that discretionary ideas could help improve things. Thanks for sharing your thoughts!